The Sports Comic

This Sunday is arguably more interesting than Super Bowl Sunday.  For one thing, there are TWO games to watch that will each supply the intensity and awesomeness that the actual championship game is supposed to.  And there are probably some other pretty good reasons but they escape me at the moment.  No matter, the games will be epically good (I promise) and by Sunday night we’ll know which municipalities are busying themselves for a trip to Indianapolis and which ones are burning overturned cars while acting like the world is ending.  Just trying to give you people in Baltimore a heads up.

New England over Baltimore – Two of the three best offenses in football have already gone down.  Three of the remaining teams boast incredibly stingy and talented defenses.  So why not go with Baltimore in this one?  Because even their defense won’t be able to stop Tom Brady from at least hanging four touchdowns on the board.  Which leaves it up to Joe Flacco and Ray Rice to get thirty points of their own.  Sorry but that just isn’t going to happen.  Joe Flacco can go back to enjoying his mustache and complaining that he doesn’t get enough credit for being just above mediocre.  As for the Patriots, they will probably not hang as many points on the Ravens as they did on the Broncos but expect the two headed TE monster to run rampant in the Ravens secondary.  The biggest worry (at least for us compulsive gamblers) is whether or not they can hit the over.  Maybe I won’t bet my next month’s rent on it.  Final score: 31-17

NY Giants over San Francisco – This has been an agonizing pick to come up with all week.  The Giants seem like an unstoppable force that is once again laying waste to teams that were easily beating them just two months ago.  But the 49ers have also been doing great all year, silencing their critics week after week with not exactly dominating performances but with enough to get the job done.  So which team will hit the proverbial wall?  Both are on a 4 game winning streak after suffering confounding losses to crappy teams (SF to Arizona, NYG to Washington) so there’s always the possibility that the teams will revert back to poorer play.  What my decision came down to is that Alex Smith had the game of his life last week and he won’t be going against the weak New Orleans defense this week.  Nor will the Giants likely turn the ball over 5 times.  And there’s just an inherent feeling of a NY/NE Super Bowl happening all over again.  The Harbaugh brothers will get their chances in the future, but for now it’s Manning/Brady all over again, just with a different Manning than normal.  The 49ers have exceeded all expectations for this season so there’s nothing left to do but overachieve.  Not against this Giants team I’m afraid.  Final score: 24-14

If I were a betting man…

The Packers killed off my remaining house money last week.  So we’ll be going all in with new money on this weekend’s games and hopefully can make enough money to get those pesky credit card companies to stop calling.

When you don’t post anything about the previous weekend’s NFL games until midday Tuesday, you’ll find most of the best story lines taken.  So instead of rehashing for the millionth time the Giants have a good defense, let’s just rag on whatever I said would happen on Friday.

“Alex Smith is not a QB you expect to keep up with Drew Brees in a shootout”

At least he wasn’t.  While I’m still skeptical of the 49ers winning this weekend (without the benefit of 5 turnovers and the fact that the Saints biggest error was scoring too quickly), I will admit that the offensive display put on by Alex Smith and Vernon Davis was impressive.  Now to see if they can replicate that success against a much better defense then New Orleans had.

“There’s just too much offensive talent on the Patriots right now to expect nothing less than victory from them even with the miracle of Tebow coming to town”

My only correct call of the weekend.  The Tebow Broncos were a nice story but there was a reason that you could still get 8,000 to 1 odds on a Denver Super Bowl title.  As for Tom Brady and the Patriots, there’s a certain symmetry involved that makes them versus the Giants appear to be the most likely championship scenario.

“Can Joe Flacco do just enough to win but not so much they lose?”

Apparently so.  Although Houston did cover the spread so my “upset” pick came through in a sense.  But what the hell is with posting 30 points in the first half and then only 3 the rest of the game.  That over was mine, damnit, mine!

“By the end of the day, the Packers/Saints rematch will be the talk of the next week.  Count on it.”

Now if I were a nationally followed prognosticator, this would have been a great quote for the bulletin boards in both the 49er and Giants locker rooms.  However, I seriously doubt that my brash pronouncement on Friday was the impetus for players like Justin Smith or Eli Manning to go out and play so successfully over the weekend.  Sure I’m egocentric enough to imagine Eli connecting on that Hail Mary and saying out loud to no one in particular “Count on that, Sports Comic!”  But basic reality states my words were probably only read by myself, a possible couple of Facebook friends, and some various spambots that keep offering “comments” on my posts.  Nevertheless, this certainly was a humbling experience for me and my support of explosive offensive teams.

If I were a betting man…

My lack of faith in Tebow was rewarded.  But just for fun, God made sure that my other firm beliefs were exposed for what they always were, blind optimism that these offenses could outscore any good defense.  I was slightly rewarded with my Houston upset pick and I’m certainly bullish on the Patriots next week if the Ravens offense looks like that.  But minds can change as the week goes on so we’ll see where instincts are pointing on Friday.

Money Line: 1-3     ATS: 2-2

Well God sure showed me.  After picking against Tim Tebow and the Broncos last weekend, I watched as the team that certainly ranks as the most improbable to make a deep playoff run not only beat up the Steelers but didn’t fold under the pressure of a furious Pittsburgh comeback.  Extra kudos goes to the Denver offensive coordinator for doing what almost any football fan could have predicted and calling a pass play on first down.  Big surprise that the Steelers weren’t looking for it and that it thus ended the quickest overtime playoff game in NFL history.  All I can say is wow.

Does that mean I’m picking the Broncos for upset number two this week?  Not so fast there.  While New England does have trouble historically with the Broncos and their defense isn’t nearly as sound as Pittsburgh’s, it seems a stretch to believe that Tom Brady won’t post 40 points again and Tebow isn’t really a comeback artist type (or at least not when down by more than two scores).  I will say that the almost two touchdown point spread is incredibly tantalizing and very well may be a good thing to take when dealing with the Tebow phenomena.  Nevertheless, after my horrible prediction that the Tebow train was derailed last week, I still feel with confidence that this week it comes to an end.  Hopefully a gritty, exciting end at that.

Last week I made the mistake of picking all four favorites which never usually works out.  This week they are just as attractive but logic says that one of the favorites will go down (or at least not cover).  Find out who it is below.

New Orleans over San Francisco – This isn’t the upset pick.  While the Saints certainly aren’t as imposing when outside on grass, the weather in the Bay area promises to be quite balmy this weekend and even though the 49er defense is pretty stellar, so was the Lions supposed to be.  More to the point, Alex Smith is not a QB you expect to keep up with Drew Brees in a shootout.  Not that this will be a shootout but it will certainly come out in the Saints favor.  Final Score: 28-17

New England over Denver – The Patriots haven’t won a playoff game since 2007.  Something about that doesn’t sound right.  And does that mean I’m suddenly backtracking on my pick?  Not in the slightest.  There’s just too much offensive talent on the Patriots right now to expect nothing less than victory from them even with the miracle of Tebow coming to town.  Denver will find that winning a road playoff game is much more difficult.  Even if they happen to get an early lead, ask Miami and Buffalo what happened to them in Foxboro after getting early leads.  Again, I’m willing to concede that the game could be close but as soon as I make that prediction then the final score will be 52-10 and I’ll again be tearing up my betting slips where Denver was my pick.  Based on the game I’m playing with God right now, He’ll see to it that whatever I say is going to happen won’t.  Which means good news for you Denver fans.  Final Score: 35-13

Houston over Baltimore – Here’s where I’m putting my upset dollars.  Everyone is writing off the Texans now that they’ve gotten their playoff win and had a nice time winning their division.  But no one wants to suggest that despite starting a rookie QB, the guy on the other side of the field is a bit of an enigma in his own way.  Can Joe Flacco do just enough to win but not so much they lose?  A steady diet of Ray Rice is certainly on the menu as will be the Foster/Tate combo platter on the other side.  Both defenses are sound and talented and very well may be the difference in this one.  Last week was Denver’s turn for the fairy tale ending.  This week it’s the Texans turn.  Plus, wouldn’t it be fitting for the Ravens to finally vanquish their rival Steelers for the division title, have the Steelers already eliminated from the playoffs, and then go lay a goose egg and get bounced in front of their home fans?  I think it would.  Final Score: 17-13

Green Bay over NY Giants – I have several Packers fans who are a bit concerned with this matchup.  And I agree with them.  Everyone and their brother is relating this Giants team to the one in 2007 that beat the Packers at Lambeau and then upset the undefeated Patriots for the title.  Of course, until they actually do that this is just the 2011 Giants team that barely won their division and lost to the Redskins twice.  Can they actually put together a run?  I say no, for one very big reason.  Brett Favre is no longer the Green Bay QB.  Remember him?  The guy who flat out gave the NFL sack title to Michael Strahan?  The guy who threw that terrible pick in that aforementioned game at Lambeau that doomed the Packers?  Yeah, he won’t be there to serve up his favorite opponent with a win on a platter.  Aaron Rodgers is going to throw and throw and throw the ball until the Giants defense is writhing on the ground.  A guy named Jordy Nelson will make Lambeau leaps.  By the end of the day, the Packers/Saints rematch will be the talk of the next week.  Count on it.  Final Score: 38-30

If I were a betting man…

I should say if I were a “smart” betting man because everything pointed to picking the Broncos last weekend and I failed to do so.  I know that I’m picking against them again this week but, hey, it’s a brand new week.

Money Line: 3-1     ATS: 3-1

Okay, now that I’ve come to grips with another massively disappointing Cowboys season, we can focus on the teams that DID make the playoffs and have a chance at that ultimate prize…making that Disney commercial.  It’s the usual mix of the familiar and the new this year (half the teams making the playoffs this year didn’t last year) and while not all of them are heavy favorites to spend February in Indianapolis (which might actually be okay with some of them) every team will certainly give their best effort to get there.

Houston over Cincinnati – It’s the first trip to the playoffs ever by the Texans and they even get to host a home game.  Granted the Texans should send a note of thanks to Peyton Manning for finally allowing someone else win the division.  Heck, the Texans may even want to have Manning come play today because at this point he may be healthier than any of the other quarterbacks that Houston has to choose from.  What Houston will need to do is rely heavily on their running game and defense plus hope that Cincinnati has a little more of the “we’re just happy to be here” disease then they have.  Rattling rookie QB Andy Dalton will be the key in this game but it’s not like he hasn’t played in some big bowl games before.  But Houston isn’t Boise State and the Bengals have not beaten a team with a winning record this year (including losing to Houston by one point at home).  One thing is for sure, don’t expect a lot of points.  Final score: 20-13

New Orleans over Detroit – Now this game should have plenty of scoring.  It may even be one of those games where whoever scores last wins.  As a fan I’m certainly intrigued by that possibility (although as a gambler I hope the Saints win comfortably).  Both teams have the benefit of playing in domes and I’m sure the Lions are thrilled they don’t have to face Matt Flynn this week.  Oh wait, they have to face Drew Brees instead and that’s probably not a good thing for their defense.  Granted Matt Stafford can fling the rock pretty well himself (he had an extremely ignored 5,000+ yards passing himself this season) but the main factor in all of this is one thing.  THE SAINTS DO NOT LOSE AT HOME.  Final score: 40-28

NY Giants over Atlanta – This is a hard game to choose.  The Giants are the Jeckyl/Hyde of the NFL and it’s impossible to know which team will show up.  I’m banking on the former as they’ve managed to get it together with two must wins to finish out the season and a pass rush that should (repeat, should) keep Matt Ryan and the Falcons scrambling for their lives all day.  Although it will not surprise me if the Falcons win going away.  That’s what is so frustrating about these Giants.  They could blow them out, win/lose a close game, or get blown out.  Anything is possible.  To be honest, I’m picking the Giants in the hopes that this will end up causing them to lose (I have that much power) because I can’t stand the Giants.  But because I’m a Cowboys fan, it only makes sense for the Giants to go on a run and win the Super Bowl or something.  Stupid jerks.  Final score: 27-20

Pittsburgh over Denver – Look, I’ve been a pretty big supporter of the whole Tim Tebow phenomena if for no other reason than it drives football experts crazy.  I’m already crazy so it makes no difference to me if he’s actually a messenger of God or just incredibly lucky when playing teams that already kind of sucked.  Pittsburgh certainly doesn’t suck but at the same time they have a litany of injuries that just might (keyword, might) stop them from getting out far ahead in this one and allowing the backdoor, last minute Tebow led win to come about.  If Denver is within one score by the middle of the 4th quarter in this one then I expect another miracle could be at hand.  But I suspect the Tebow train is fully derailed (I mean they lost to Kansas City last week and only got into the playoffs because the Raiders couldn’t win, which isn’t exactly a shocking scenario either).  So look for the Steelers to play the role of spoiler this week and very possibly play that role again in Baltimore which would ruin the whole “the Ravens are finally at home in the playoffs” storyline.  Although based on my picks the Steelers will be hitting Foxboro next so maybe I’m getting ahead of myself.  Final score: 21-10

The NFL regular season came to a close Sunday and while 12 teams get to look ahead to potential postseason success, the other 20 teams slink away into the off season with unfulfilled hopes left behind and tenuous job security looming ahead.  Some coaches have already been axed (St. Louis, Tampa Bay) while there were unexpected shakeups with two other teams (the Polians being ousted in Indy; AJ Smith and Norv Turner being retained in San Diego).  There promises to be more turnover in the coming weeks (surely Jim Irsay isn’t keeping Jim Caldwell?).  Embattled Giants coach Tom Coughlin managed to save his job (again) although it’s possible that an ugly wild card exit at home against Atlanta could bring back the specter of the turk (that’s the guy who tells players about to be cut in training camp to go see the head coach for those of you sports novices).  And then there’s Dallas.

As a fan of the team for many years, I’ve found the Jerry Jones era equally parts satisfying and painfully unfulfilling.  His refusal to hire a regular GM has antagonized fans for years and while there have certainly been some solid picks in certain drafts (not coincidentally during the Bill Parcells years) this team has managed to field a perennially underachieving bunch that once again failed to deliver.  It’s difficult to decide what facet of this year’s team was most frustrating.

• The 1-4 record to end the season?
• The five 4th quarter leads that were squandered?
• The Jason Garrett icing of the kicker game in Arizona?
• The sieve like defense?
• The fact that the division was as crappy as it’s ever been and yet the playoffs could not be reached?

So many options and there’s tons more.  One of the most bizarre predicaments for Cowboys fans is QB Tony Romo.  From a purely statistical perspective, he’s done quite well in December and January although common opinion is that he hasn’t.  That opinion is based on wins and losses which it’s well documented that the Cowboys have come up short repeatedly these past few years.  But is that really Romo’s fault?  What about the lackluster running game?  The inconsistent defense?  The head coaching position that continues to include an inexplicable spot for Jerry Jones’  input?  These days when thinking about the big D, the word that that most often comes to mind is dysfunction.

Frankly, I think Garrett deserves at least one more year.  Other than his timeout gaffe, he’s overseen a team that was in every game until the end, save three (the two Eagles games and the last Giants game).  He has a wealth of experience in dealing with Jones from when he was a player and later assistant.  To fire him now (unless Jeff Fisher really wants the job) will just set the team back further and waste another year of opportunity for Tony Romo to finally achieve some postseason success.  Even Raheem Morris got three years to get it done in Tampa Bay.

It will be good to have a full offseason this year unlike last year’s lockout marred events.  The playoffs have tons of potentially thrilling storylines as will be detailed in this Friday’s playoff edition of TGIFootball.  And as for all my fellow Dallas fans, well, there’s always next year.

If I were a betting man…

I figured that while almost all of the weekend’s games still had some playoff impact (13 to be exact) I was still skeptical of the effort that was going to be put forth by the teams with nothing really to play for.  How wrong I was.  While I thought I could sneak in a firm cover with Carolina and Buffalo against the Saints and Patriots, I didn’t realize that both teams were still going to throw up 40+ points and stomp their opponents into submission.  Then you have Green Bay, who actually did sit Aaron Rodgers only to have Matt Flynn throw for franchise records, establish himself as a marquee free agent in 2012, and vanquish a Detroit team that surely wanted to avoid a first round trip to New Orleans.  All in all, it was a disappointing finish to the regular season of picks.

Money Line: 9-7     ATS: 6-10

It all comes down to this weekend as the final playoff participants are sorted out with the seedings to also be finalized.  And just as the NFL would want, almost every game has some impact on the final playoff teams.  While some games may appear foregone conclusions (SF/Rams or Steelers/Browns both come to mind), there’s always the chance of a season ending egg being laid by a locked in playoff goer.  Lots of chances for teams to play spoilers this week so the question is who’s going to be more dialed in (save the Packers who appear fairly uninterested in competing against the Lions) and win a game that may have nothing more riding on it than personal pride.  By the end of Sunday night, after what will hopefully be a division winning game by the Cowboys (though I’m mentally prepared for the heartbreaking loss), all will be known and teams can prepare for the playoffs.  Then shit’s gonna get wild.  Until then though…

Carolina over New Orleans – I know there’s the issue of the passing yardage record but at the same time there’s the issue of playing in the playoffs the next week.  The Saints will surely have that on their minds while the Panthers will look to end the season tempting everyone with their potential for next year.

New England over Buffalo – Not to say the Patriots also won’t be looking ahead to the playoffs, it’s just that they don’t lose to Buffalo at home.  Not on Tom Brady’s watch at least.

Minnesota over Chicago – The Bears seemed to hang with the Packers on Christmas Day but at this point what do they have left to play for?  Granted neither do the Vikings, who won their way out of the 1st overall pick last week in Washington.  My only hesitation on this pick is no Adrian Peterson availability.

Miami over NY Jets – The Jets are crashing (sad trumpet) plus not every team that needs to win to get in will do so.

San Francisco over St. Louis – I wanted to make this an upset pick but then I remembered what the Rams looked like last week and decided there’s no way the 49ers just give this one away.

Detroit over Green Bay – This game has a classic feel of one team mailing it in.  Not to say a Matt Flynn led Packers squad couldn’t still win it (or a huge Aaron Rodgers first quarter puts the game out of reach early) but the Lions will be fired up to win and avoid a first round trip to New Orleans in favor of the Dallas/NY Giants winner.

Philadelphia over Washington – Win here and the Eagles finish the season on a 4 game winning streak as everyone who follows sports shouts a collective “WTF?” and wonders where the hell these guys were in the first three months of the season.

Indianapolis over Jacksonville – Personally I’d like to see the Colts end up with the #1 pick but they should win this game and the Rams will definitely not win theirs.

Tennessee over Houston – The Titans still have an outside shot at making the playoffs while the Texans just hope to salvage some momentum to carry into the playoffs.

Seattle over Arizona – Two more teams exhibiting just enough pluck and promise to make their fans question what the hell happened earlier in the year then place unwavering hope on next season until the cycle can repeat itself again.

Denver over Kansas City – I’d like to see the Tebow magic make it to the playoffs just to see what happens but I could also see a severe and painful loss happen where the critics are finally allowed to perch again on their tree of judgement and denounce the sham miracles of Tim Tebow.  The Orton angle adds intrigue but at the same time…he’s Kyle Orton.

Atlanta over Tampa Bay – The Falcons would also like to avoid a trip to New Orleans (especially after Monday night) and the Buccaneers mailed it in three weeks ago.  Definitely appears to be the surest bet this weekend (and if I think that you should put your money on Tampa).

Cincinnati over Baltimore – The Bengals have everything still to play for.  The Ravens do too (the division is not quite theirs)  but they are just awful on the road.

Pittsburgh over Cleveland – Add this result to the result above and voila, the Steelers win the division, AGAIN.  Hope you enjoyed your little regular season sweep Ravens fans, the playoffs are just like the other years.

San Diego over Oakland – It’s possible that the Raiders will come out fired up because of their outside chance at a division title but the Chargers are the Eagles of the AFC this year and should put on a huge show that nets them nothing and probably keeps Norv Turner’s job.  Which is ridiculous.

NY Giants over Dallas – Sacrilege you say?  Traitor?  Well in my attempt to be a neutral observer of sports, I have to admit to reality occasionally when it pertains to my favorite team.  Or perhaps I’m just throwing a little reverse psychology towards my guys.  Who’s to say?

Now that Tebow time is plummeting faster than a fallen angel the NFL has completed sixteen of their seventeen grueling weeks of play, the final weekend still offers several teams a last gasp shot at the playoffs or in some cases even a division championship.  But we’ll address that on Friday.  Let’s take a quick look back at what was and what should never be.

Upsets

While the Buffalo thrashing of Denver was certainly a surprise I’m not so sure I’d categorize it as an upset.  Why just ten weeks ago the Bills were 5-2 while the Broncos were 2-5 but that’s what a 7 game losing streak and a 6 game winning streak, respectively, can do for a team.  The Bills also capitalized on some very unfortunate Tebow mistakes.  Keep in mind that it was a 9 point game going into the 4th quarter so while I’m allowing the Tebow haters to gloat, he still has a chance to lead his team to the playoffs and host a home game.

I was happy to see my Vikings pick come through but after witnessing the knee injury suffered by Adrian Peterson they just may want to consider using that third overall draft pick on a stud running back, you know just in case.

Not any other upsets to speak of although New England was putting forth a solid effort to be involved with one for at least a half of football.

Downsets

I am always concerned that my allegiance to two particular teams versus the common sense that I use in picking the rest of the games will skewer my final numbers and this week was no exception.  While I didn’t know that Tony Romo was going to leave the game after the first series, I definitely wasn’t convinced that the Cowboys would win this weekend.  As for the other team, Seattle, they certainly put forth a solid effort and had a chance to win all the way to the end but the 49ers have become a team reminiscent of the Baltimore Ravens in 2000.  Should San Francisco end up winning the Super Bowl, Alex Smith would certainly replace Trent Dilfer as most average QB to be Super Bowl champion.

Detroit earned its first playoff berth in this century by beating a suddenly resurgent Chargers team.  Now they have to be considered the scarier of the two wild card entrants seeing as Atlanta looked horrible on Monday night.

If I were a betting man…

A solid if unspectacular weekend that could have used a boost from my two fan favorite picks.  But just as much as I didn’t see the Denver destruction nor did I see the Lions.

Money Line: 11-5     ATS: 9-7

I know it’s after the fact but I really did pick the Colts to win last night.  Now their fans get to sweat through the last game of the season and hope that Jacksonville can knock off their beloved team and make sure Indianapolis gets the #1 overall pick.  It’s still theirs to lose but they just made the certainty of getting it a lot less certain with their upset of the Texans.  Pride is all well and good boys but restocking your franchise with a QB for the next decade is an opportunity that shouldn’t be missed.  Anyway, on to the rest of the picks.

Kansas City over Oakland – Never underestimate the power of a regime change, whether it’s in Cairo or Kansas City.  The Chiefs are miraculously still in the playoff hunt while the Raiders have a decade long streak of disappointment to live up to.

Tennessee over Jacksonville – Losing to the Colts won’t hurt the Texans as much as it did the Titans last week.  They need to win out and get some serious help to make the playoffs.  As for fantasy playoffs nationwide, will Chris Johnson provide enough stats to finally justify his draft status to owners everywhere?  (That’s of course assuming that owners of Chris Johnson even made their fantasy playoffs)

New England over Miami – The regime change issue is less of an impact in this one as the Patriots will surely not let the Dolphins derail their quest for the #1 seed and home field through the playoffs.

Cincinnati over Arizona – This is a tough call because the Cardinals are playing with extreme confidence right now and are technically still in the playoff hunt.  However, the Bengals are too and they need this game badly to stay apace for the final wild card slot.

Denver over Buffalo – The Bills have not only derailed but parts of the train are still running over their mangled bodies at the side of the tracks.  Maybe they should have waited until after the season to extend Ryan Fitzpatrick’s contract?  Meanwhile the Broncos will look to schedule more Tebow time and keep their divisional title hopes alive.

Pittsburgh over St. Louis – Just got word that Charlie Batch will be starting this game which really only means that the Rams just might be able to cover the spread.  But win?  Not a chance.

NY Giants over NY Jets – I hate to pick the Giants but they seem a little less chaotic than the Jets right now plus they are technically the visiting team and they play better as visitors.

Minnesota over Washington – Classic letdown game for the Redskins as they come home from their upset in New York while the Vikings do their part to relieve Colts fans’ worries by winning their 3rd game.

Carolina over Tampa Bay – The Bucs are in shambles much like the Bills but at least they get to play in a nicer climate.  The Panthers should put this one away early.

Baltimore over Cleveland – After their debacle in San Diego the Ravens will be looking to reassert their dominance in the AFC with a complete destruction of the hapless Browns.

San Diego over Detroit – Two hot teams coming into this one but the Chargers are doing their usual December heroics while the Lions are still getting used to this whole winning record thing.

Dallas over Philadelphia – Jerry Jones may be afraid of the Eagles but I’m sticking with my team until the bitter end.  (Of course from a gambling perspective I am very afraid of the Eagles)

Seattle over San Francisco – The Seahawks owe payback to the 49ers for their opening game.  Of course, if this game were in the Bay area then I’d be less inclined to pick Seattle.

Green Bay over Chicago – The Packers can now return to beating people by 20 without worrying about their perfect record.  As for the Bears, there’s always next year.

New Orleans over Atlanta – Drew Brees will break Dan Marino’s single season passing yardage record late in the 3rd quarter and then break the Falcons will in the 4th.

The last of the zeroes were crossed off on Sunday.  The Packers are no longer perfect and the Colts can finally say they’ve beaten someone.  What would have made the ending of both streaks infinitesimally more fascinating is if they had happened against each other.  But that would have been some kind of scheduling miracle on par with Tebow-level mysticism.  Still, both opponents were unlikely teams to expect such an outcome from.

Kansas City was 5-8 and seemingly dead in the water as far as their season was concerned.  Having just fired their head coach and welcoming the undefeated defending champs appeared to have all the fairness of a high schooler against a first grader in a playground fight.  But there are two factors that many may have overlooked (myself included).  One, the Chiefs play great at home no matter how crappy their team is.  Outside of Seattle, I’d say that Arrowhead Stadium is the best home field advantage in the NFL.  Two, don’t underestimate how much more the players may like Romeo Crennel versus ex-head coach Todd Haley.  By most accounts Haley was a jerk and probably kept playing Tyler Palko because his ego was too huge to admit that playing the guy was a huge mistake.  As such, you have a situation where the players no longer have the jerk head coach around while the beloved coach is auditioning for the job and no one on the planet is giving you a chance to beat Green Bay.  So why not go out and beat them?  Now the Chiefs are in the AFC West race (incredibly) and the Packers can no longer worry about the undefeated talk.

The other game provided contrasts of a different style.  The Titans were coming in at 7-6 and in playoff contention but certainly not guaranteed anything.  The Colts were riding the 0-13 losing streak and on a beeline for the #1 overall draft pick next year so they can take their next superstar QB in Andrew Luck.  But suddenly the Colts finally played like a professional football team and the Titans (finalists for the most aggravating team to figure out this season) played down to the level of their competition and voila, the Colts had a win.  Now the Titans will be scrambling to make the playoffs at all.  Of course the Colts didn’t exactly get back into the AFC South race at 1-13 but they did stop the tidal wave of losing which has to feel good.  But an ancillary aspect of winning is that they now could potentially lose that coveted #1 pick.

How you ask?  Well by continuing to win for one.  The Colts play a somewhat vulnerable Texans team at home on Thursday and then finish out the season with a winnable game at Jacksonville.  There are two teams at 2-12 right now, Minnesota and St. Louis.  The Vikings play the Redskins and Bears and should win at least one of those so we’ll count them out.  But St. Louis plays Pittsburgh and San Francisco.  Only under the most extreme of circumstances (like the 49ers resting their entire team in the season finale) would anyone say that the Rams have a chance in either game.  So a 2-14 Rams team seems like a lock.  But could there be a 3-13 Colts team?  Granted the Rams don’t need a QB (or do they?) and probably wouldn’t take Luck.  But as the possessors of the first pick they could be major players will every NFL team that wanted to deal up for the pick, including Indianapolis.  Suddenly the Colts could find themselves having to actually give up assets just to select Luck.  Not necessarily going to happen, but the last two weeks of the season just got very interesting for the worst team (at least record wise) in the NFL.

While the Green Bay loss was still a shocker and the Colts win fairly surprising, the Giants loss and the Eagles blowout win really weren’t surprising at all.  Granted I picked both games incorrectly, but had I really paid attention to history and common sense both of those outcomes should have been obvious.  The Giants are easily as erratic as the aforementioned Titans and to watch them blow a game against the Redskins after just putting themselves in prime position in the NFC East is nothing new to old NFC East fans such as myself.  Conversely, the Eagles suddenly playing great once the scrutiny and pressure has been lifted is also old news.  And so a three team race is on for the division title, at least this week.

If I were a betting man…

A very solid week of picks which also benefited my against the spread mark.  Sadly, the Green Bay and Giants upsets plus a late spread covering TD by the Rams sent most of my quick money dreams down the drain once again.  On the plus side, I picked the winner and correct Under/Over in the Saturday, Sunday, and Monday night games.  So I have that going for me.  Which is nice.

Money Line: 12-4     ATS: 10-6

This week there was a complete slip of the mind regarding the NFL picks, possibly due to Thursday night games and then Saturday night games with Thursday night game logos and such that I made my picks (really, I did) and just never made them public to the public.  So here are the after the fact picks with commentary regarding the outcome, which is a change of pace from always having to predict what might happen.

Dallas over Tampa Bay – Naturally as a Cowboys fan I was going to make this pick anyway but the real thrill was sweating through the entire 4th quarter and praying no one scored so my parlay involving the under came through.

Carolina over Houston – This was one of my two upset picks this week.  It was just too much to expect T.J. Yates to keep it up and the Texans D not to miss Wade Phillips.  Plus the whole Cam Newton thing.

NY Giants over Washington - I’ll admit I wasn’t real confident in the Giants for this one but I thought the big win in Dallas might carry their momentum forward.  Whoops.  The Giants ruined ten (10!!!) of my parlays today.

Green Bay over Kansas City – This was also one that I never saw coming.  I was a bit fearful of the 15.5 point spread and the fact the Chiefs play real well at home but still envisioned the Packers to ring up 28 points in their sleep.  So down goes the last undefeated team which will probably play in their favor overall.

Seattle over Chicago – There’s something about this Seattle team that makes me fearful of picking against them.  And of course the Bears start Caleb Hanie who sucks although he threw for 3 touchdown passes today.  Unfortunately two of them were to Seahawks defenders.  Say goodbye to the playoffs Bears fans.  How’s Donovan McNabb sounding now?

New Orleans over Minnesota – The Saints are becoming the spread covering dream and hopefully will keep it up the rest of the year.  The Vikings should just start thinking about next year.  Which would also be ideal gambling wise.

Buffalo over Miami - I gave the Bills the benefit of being at home but perhaps I should have considered the refreshing feeling the players may have felt in being free from Tony Sparano.  For that matter that probably had a huge effect in Kansas City as well.

Cincinnati over St. Louis – The Bengals couldn’t allow a game like this get away from them and didn’t.  Although a meaningless Rams touchdown in the finals minutes caused them to cover the spread.  Which would’ve sucked a lot more if the bigger upsets hadn’t happened.

Indianapolis over Tennessee – This one I’ve had circled for weeks as the last chance for the Colts to avoid imperfection.  Add in that they’ve been playing tough lately and the Titans are incredibly erratic.

Detroit over Oakland – This one was saved in the last minute for me by the Lions.  The game was essentially a tossup and I lucked out.

New England over Denver – In Brady I trust.  I have no problem with Tim Tebow, his play, or any of the other elements surrounding him right now.  But he managed to not play a single superstar QB in his impressive string of victories (no offense Phillip Rivers but you can be confounding at times).  Finally facing a legit superstar, the winning streak was destined to fail.  What even made it a game was that the Patriots D is terrible.  I did make a few wagers with a Tebow miracle a key element but obviously none came to pass.

NY Jets over Philadelphia – This one I feel stupid about.  This is the perfect time for the Eagles to finally play to their potential, when there’s no pressure at all.  But wait, they’re even still in the hunt for the NFC East title.  Oh goody!  I pray that the Cowboys finally put this team down next Sunday.  But the Philadelphia late season push to win is alive and well.

Arizona over Cleveland – The Cardinals looked like the team that I knew I shouldn’t have believed in in the first place and they still ended up not covering but at least I get the W.

San Diego over Baltimore – Just like the Eagles, the Chargers are now streaking and still have hopes of winning the AFC West if a few things go their way.  And thanks to my inner feeling that the Bolts would win big tonight I was able to recoup all my losses and then some.  Now we can concentrate on next week’s parlays.  Except for…

San Francisco over Pittsburgh – This was/is my original pick.  But it stands to reason that with the Ravens loss Sunday night, the Steelers know they could still pull off winning the division and need this game more.  And with that being the case does anyone doubt that Ben Roethlisberger will play tomorrow?